There is a lot of turmoil going on in the world these days. Everybody is constantly talking about war(s). Namely, when Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th, 2022, suddenly thoughts about World War III appeared in everyone’s mind.
We can easily see that by looking at Google Trends:
Notice the big spike on the week of invasion. Then notice a couple of spikes in 2024 and now the (bad) trend is rising again.
People on the street are talking about it. News is bombarding us with information about escalations, and what would happen is Putin decides this, Trump decides another thing, and Zelensky and the EU agree on a third thing.
Let’s be real—times are not good, and there is a strange feeling in the air. We all sense it in some way, but we can’t quite put it into words.
In WhatsApp groups around the world, friends are sharing their thoughts about the potential start of World War III. We do this for several reasons: because we are afraid, because we understand that war makes no sense, and because war takes lives—both directly and indirectly.
War destroys not only lives but also the psyche and infrastructure of entire nations—and the world as a whole.
On this platform, we have written extensively about topics such as a world without wars and whether we, as human beings, have not yet become self-aware and intelligent enough to feel sick to our stomachs at the mere thought of war.
It is absolutely astonishing that, in the 21st century, with all the progress we have made as a civilization, we still have to talk about wars.
And right now, there are not just a few conflicts.
Quite the opposite. Do you know how many armed conflicts are currently happening worldwide? The number will shock you.
The Geneva Academy’s Rule of Law in Armed Conflict (RULAC) portal states that there are currently more than 110 armed conflicts worldwide.
Yes, you read that correctly—110 armed conflicts.
This is simply brutal. One would think that humanity had matured consciously, but no—we remain as conflict-driven and war-minded as ever.
In fact, these numbers are now reaching levels unseen since World War II.
And that is deeply concerning!
Therefore, let’s try to put some reasoning (if the word ‘reason’ can even be used in a sentence with wars) and the probabilities of WW3 actually happening.
And before diving deep into political tensions, current conflicts, and events, let’s just state the following:
We believe that no war on Earth should ever happen again. There are enough resources for everyone, and more than enough for all of us. We could all live in a happier utopia.
We hope that politicians and powerful people involved in wars will somehow come to their senses, and that reason will prevail. The world cannot afford further escalation, as there are already far too many conflicts on this planet.
Let’s put an end to the nonsense of power and money, the driving forces behind so many wars. Human beings are so much more than that.
War should no longer exist—not as a word, not as a thought in our minds, and not as part of any conscious atom on this Earth.
Having said that, let’s see where we stand as a society with regards to the potential of Third World War.
Interesting fact: During the Korean War (1950–1953), many believed it was the beginning of World War 3 due to fears of escalation involving the U.S., USSR, and China
Unfortunately, The Dominoes Are Set
War doesn’t break out from nothing. It builds over time. Small events stack like a game of cards, each piece making the whole thing shakier. One wrong move, and everything collapses.
And right now, several countries have their hands on the table, shaking it just enough.
China eyes Taiwan. Russia and Ukraine are still in a big conflict (full-fledged war, let’s be honest). The U.S. and NATO flex their muscles. Iran and Israel exchange threats constantly. The situation between Israel and Gaza is beyond words.
So, could a single misfire or a wrong word even, start the fire? Well, let’s just hope not.
But history is messy when it comes to what sparked some of the biggest conflicts. Namely, wars have begun with over a single assassination, a misunderstanding, or even a bad translation.
Yes, even bad translation and miscommunication.
Examples of those are:
- The Mukden Incident (1931) – The Japanese invasion of Manchuria was partly influenced by mistranslations and misunderstandings between Chinese and Japanese diplomats, leading to increased tensions and Japan’s full-scale military action.
- The Potsdam Declaration (1945) and Japan’s Surrender – During World War II, Japan’s Prime Minister, Kantaro Suzuki, responded to the Allies’ ultimatum with the word mokusatsu, which can mean either “ignore” or “withhold comment.” Western interpreters took it as a rejection, reinforcing the belief that Japan would continue fighting, and we know what happened afterwards.
- The Sino-Indian War (1962) – Misinterpretations of diplomatic communications and ambiguous translations between Chinese and Indian officials contributed to tensions over border disputes, eventually leading to war.
Interesting fact: In 1983, a Soviet officer named Stanislav Petrov ignored a false alarm of incoming U.S. missiles, preventing nuclear war. One man, one decision—history changed. And there are many movies and books written about this man. For example, the movie: The Man Who Saved The World.
The Economy of War
Follow the money. Always! War isn’t just about power; it’s about business. Weapons manufacturers thrive when the world shakes.
Hint: Just look at the European stock companies that produce arms or are in any way related to the war. Leonardo SpA, Saab AB, Thales, Rheinmettal AG, just to name a few. All skyrocketing.
Oil prices also skyrocket in many cases. Governments print money, and inflation eats away everything. And unfortunately, some leaders see war as a solution to economic problems, a way to rally people against a common enemy rather than their own failing policies.
And so, by reading this – do you recognize some of these consequences happening already? Well, we have inflation, we have money printing and weapons manufacturers are thriving.
A lot of “small” little details!
But, we need to ask ourselves – would modern economies survive a global conflict? The last two world wars had clear supply chains, defined battle lines, and a slower spread of information.
Now?
Cyberattacks could shut down banks in seconds. AI-powered weapons could eliminate entire regiments without a human pulling the trigger. A war wouldn’t just be fought with tanks and troops but with data, satellites, and financial warfare.
Interesting fact: During WWII, Coca-Cola created a new drink for Nazi Germany when they couldn't get ingredients for Coke. That drink? Fanta.
Would Today’s People Actually Go Along With It?
Governments make decisions, but people fight wars. Would the average person in 2025 willingly march into battle? Maybe not. This isn’t 1914!
Today, soldiers have smartphones. They see death in real-time. And they question orders. Big time.
A large-scale war would require mass mobilization, and that’s not easy in a world where people are more connected and skeptical than ever. Sure, propaganda still works, but would it be enough?
What if entire battalions simply refused? The government cannot kill or imprison all of its people just because they don’t want to go to war.
Interesting fact: In WWI, an entire stretch of British and German soldiers stopped fighting on Christmas, exchanging gifts and playing soccer instead. War paused for a day because people decided it should. This event is known as the Christmas Truce of 1914.
So, How Close Are We to Another World War?
Well, unfortunately, things are not looking so good. The tension is real. Everybody can feel it.
But history has shown that last-minute decisions, unlikely heroes, and strange twists can change everything. Perhaps this time Trump will be a hero but also perhaps he will be the bad spark that initiates everything. We simply can’t know.
World War 3 could start tomorrow. And one thing’s for sure: If it happens, it won’t look like the wars before it.
At all!
So, having said that, let’s look at a couple of potential scenarios and try to calculate some probabilities.
And you could ask – why would we even do that? Why would we even write about it? Well because probability is (unfortunately) NOT zero!
If it’s not zero, let’s try to calculate the likelihood.
Interesting fact: In 1961, the U.S. Air Force accidentally dropped two Mark 39 hydrogen bombs near Goldsboro, North Carolina, after a B-52 bomber broke apart in midair. Each bomb had a yield of about 4 megatons, which is over 250 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. One of the bombs nearly detonated—it went through three of its four arming steps. The final step, a low-voltage safety switch, was the only thing that prevented a nuclear explosion. A report later revealed that a single switch prevented disaster, making this one of the closest calls in nuclear history.
The Current State of Affairs
As mentioned at the beginning, wars don’t just start out of the blue—different events build up over time, and a single event can trigger the horror.
World War I kicked off with a single gunshot in Sarajevo, spiraling into a mess of trenches and millions dead. They called it the war to end all wars, but the peace treaty at Versailles was more like a time bomb.
Germany stewed in resentment, and barely 20 years later, World War II exploded. Hitler’s march across Europe, the Holocaust’s horrors, and the mushroom clouds over Hiroshima and Nagasaki showed us what happens when the world goes all-in on war.
Those scars remind us: global conflicts start small but grow fast!
Unfortunately, however, all the pieces for a potential world war are out there. Everything is simmering at a really high temperature right now. Trump has just risen to power. We have many trade wars, and, as mentioned at the beginning, there are hundreds of conflicts around the world, including two or three very serious ones.
And again some (seemingly) smaller things or miscommunications could trigger something that we really don’t want.
For example, the Chinese Embassy in the US just posted the following:
“If the U.S. truly wants to solve the #fentanyl issue, then the right thing to do is to consult with China by treating each other as equals. If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”
Notice how they mentioned the word “war” four times in a single tweet.
Here is the original post:
In response to that, Pete Hegseth, the US Defence Secretary stated:
“Well, we’re prepared. Those who long for peace must prepare for war, that’s why we’re rebuilding our military.”
Additionally, we have the statement from the President of European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen:
“We are in an era of rearmament. And Europe is ready to massively boost its defense spending.”
There are many other clues in communications from leaders all over the world, but let’s just stop here and go on to the final part of this article where we try to measure the probabilities.
Calculating the Probability of World War 3
So, how do we put a number on something as massive and unpredictable as World War 3? It’s not an exact science—there’s no crystal ball here—but we can make an educated guess by analyzing the factors that drive global conflicts, factoring in recent events, media buzz, public sentiment and the state of current wars.
Then we can add weights to each factor based on their potential to spark or prevent a global war.
Now, keep in mind that by weighing (adding percentages), we tried to be as objective as possible, taking into account not only the impact of a single event but also the positive impact of global diplomacy, while also considering how many countries possess nuclear weapons.
After all, nuclear weapons might just be the only thing that has prevented a world war from already happening.
So, here is the breakdown, step by step, with a mix of logic, media communication, current state of affairs and a some imagination.
Step 1: Identifying Key Factors
To figure out the odds, we need to include the factors that could spark—or stop—a global war:
- Geopolitical Tensions (35% weight): Rivalries like Russia-NATO, US-China, Ukraine-Russia war, or Middle East conflicts—these are the biggest matches near the war fuse.
- Economic Instability (20% weight): Inflations, trade fights, and supply chain problems can make nations very nervous.
- Technological Advancements (15% weight): Cyber strikes and AI weapons could potentially (accidentally) light the fire.
- Public Sentiment (10% weight): Restless crowds can push leaders into bold and dumb moves.
- Diplomatic Efforts (10% weight): Talking it out can slow down the world’s nervousness but it could also add gasoline to the current fire.
- Nuclear Deterrence (10% weight): Nine countries have nukes—US, Russia, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, North Korea. That’s a lot of firepower, but it might keep everyone too scared to start anything rather horrific.
Step 2: Rating the Current Risk
Let’s score each factor from 0 (no risk) to 10 (red alert):
- Geopolitical Tensions: 8/10
The war between Ukraine and Russia continues with NATO heavily involved in weapons support, and Putin’s nuclear threats are keeping us on the edge. Trump has halted military aid to Ukraine. China is (constantly) eyeing Taiwan and asserting power in the South China Sea, while tensions between Iran and Israel escalate constantly. Basically, global spots are not in a very good place so 8 feels accurate. - Economic Instability: 7/10
Inflation is still very concerning, supply chains are unstable, and trade fights—like US-China tariffs—are not making things better. Not a global meltdown, but the pressure’s real. - Technological Advancements: 6/10
Cyberattacks could potentially hit very hard—hospitals, grids, you name it. Only one huge cyberattack could initiate global conflict. - Public Sentiment: 5/10
As mentioned at the beginning, everybody is talking about the potential WW3. You’re probably witnessing this by yourself, and Google and X(Twitter) trends prove that. - Diplomatic Efforts: 4/10
Summits are happening—UN, NATO—but Russia’s left out and China is tense, It’s not hopeless, just uncertain. - Nuclear Deterrence: 3/10
Nine nuclear powers, thousands of warheads—Russia and the US hold over 90% of them. The threat of mutual destruction is brutal: if one launches, everyone loses. While this helps prevent such an event, the unpredictability of North Korea is a concern for sure.
Step 3: Crunching the Numbers
So, let’s multiply each rating by its weight, then add them up.
(8×0.35)+(7×0.2)+(6×0.15)+(5×0.1)+(4×0.1)+(3×0.1)(8 \times 0.35) + (7 \times 0.2) + (6 \times 0.15) + (5 \times 0.1) + (4 \times 0.1) + (3 \times 0.1)(8 x 0.35) + (7 x 0.2) + (6 x 0.15) + (5 x 0.1) + (4 x 0.1) + (3 x 0.1) =2.8+1.4+0.9+0.5+0.4+0.3=6.3= 2.8 + 1.4 + 0.9 + 0.5 + 0.4 + 0.3 = 6.3= 2.8 + 1.4 + 0.9 + 0.5 + 0.4 + 0.3 = 6.3
A risk score of 6.3 out of 10 sounds concerning, but let’s not jump to conclusions. This is (only) a potential risk – not a probability.
Step 5: Estimating the Probability
A 6.3 score isn’t a straight percentage—full tension doesn’t guarantee war, thanks to nukes, diplomacy and many other factors.
Cold War odds hovered around 1% per year, spiking to 10–50% during crises like the Cuban Missile Crisis. Today’s situation—110 conflicts plus multiple nuclear powers— well, that feels even more concerning.
Without nuclear weapons and diplomacy efforts, we could estimate a 20% probability of global war based on tensions alone. However, nuclear deterrence and diplomacy lower this to an objective 10–12% chance in the near future.
Deterrence and diplomacy work—until it doesn’t!
And of course, this is just our best attempt at an (educated?) guess.
Maybe Trump manages to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine in the coming weeks. If that happens, the probability of World War III drops significantly.
But it will never be 0%!
There are too many mad politicians out there and there are too many things that could go wrong in this disturbed and messy world.
But let’s end on a more positive note. At the end of the day, we’ve managed to avoid World War III for 80 years, and there’s no real reason to start one now.
Looking at history, the world has been steadily moving toward better living conditions, more advanced societies, and fewer wars. Sure, conflicts still exist, but they aren’t as devastating as they once were.
Not too long ago, humanity was constantly at war, killing each other on a massive scale. Now, a significant portion of the world’s population enjoys relatively peaceful and comfortable lives.
And in the end, we like to believe that we are becoming more self-aware, conscious, and empathetic beings—qualities that should steer us far faar away from brutal wars.
