What Will Happen To Earth In 2029? Looming Catastrophe?

In 2029, Earth will experience a rare cosmic event that has scientists and astronomers around the world excited. On April 13th of that year, the asteroid Apophis will come closer to our planet than any other known asteroid of its size.

Apophis is estimated to be around 340 meters (1,100 feet) in diameter and will pass within 31,860 kilometers (19,794 miles) of Earth’s surface. While this distance may seem far, it’s actually closer than the orbit of some satellites.

This close encounter with Apophis has raised concerns about the potential for impact. However, scientists have calculated that the asteroid will not hit Earth in 2029.

Instead, the flyby will provide a unique opportunity for researchers to study Apophis and gather data that will help determine its future trajectory.

Interesting fact: Apophis was first discovered in 2004 and was initially thought to have a high probability of colliding with Earth in 2029 or 2036. However, subsequent observations and calculations have ruled out the possibility of impact.

So let’s find out more about this interesting asteroid.

Asteroid Apophis Flyby

As mentioned in 2029, the asteroid Apophis will make a close approach to Earth, coming within 19,794 miles of our planet’s surface.

There are many interesting things about this asteroid, starting with his name.

The name “Apophis” originates from ancient Egyptian mythology. In Egyptian belief, Apophis (also known as Apep) was a serpent or dragon deity representing chaos and destruction.

The choice of this name for the asteroid reflects the potential threat it poses to Earth due to its close approaches and the chaos it could cause if it were to collide with our planet.

Just like the mythical Apophis threatened the order of the cosmos, the asteroid Apophis represents a potential disruption to the order and safety of our world.

Key Data About Apophis

Property	Value
Discovery	June 19, 2004
Discovered by	Roy A. Tucker, David J. Tholen, and Fabrizio Bernardi
Name Origin	Egyptian god of chaos
Diameter	Approximately 340 meters
Closest Approach (2029)	31,200 kilometers from Earth
Closest Approach (2036)	To be determined
Potential Impact (2029)	Ruled out
Orbital Period	Approximately 324 days
Composition	Likely composed of silicate rock, nickel, iron, and other metals
Study Opportunities	Considered as a potential target for future space missions for scientific exploration and study
Threat Assessment	Low risk of impact, but continued monitoring and refinement of predictions are ongoing

Theoretical Strength of the Impact

Even though scientists calculated that there is zero chance that Aphopis will hit Earth it is interesting to hypothesize what kind of impact would that be.

So let’s do some math.

To indulge in a speculative estimation, let’s consider a scenario where Apophis, with its estimated diameter of 340 meters, collides with Earth at a velocity typical for asteroids in its class, which can range from 20 to 70 kilometers per second.

Using a simplified model, we can make a rough calculation based on the kinetic energy of the asteroid upon impact. The kinetic energy formula is 1/2 x mass x velocity². To calculate the mass, we’ll need to estimate the density of Apophis, which is usually assumed to be similar to the density of rock, around 2.5 grams per cubic centimeter.

Given these assumptions, let’s say Apophis is traveling at a conservative speed of 20 kilometers per second (which is on the lower end of the scale for asteroids).

We’ll convert the diameter to meters (340 meters) and calculate the mass using the formula for the volume of a sphere (4/3 x π x radius³), assuming a spherical shape.

After calculating the mass, we’ll use the kinetic energy formula to estimate the energy released upon impact. Keep in mind that this is a rough estimation and actual impact energy could vary based on numerous factors.

So, let’s see the final calculation:

Volume = 4/3 × π x (radius)³ = 4/3 × π x (170)³ ≈ 6.16 × 10⁷ cubic meters

Now, let’s find the mass of Apophis:

Mass = Volume * Density ≈ 6.16 × 10⁷ cubic meters * 2.5 grams/cubic centimeter ≈ 1.54 × 10¹¹ kilograms

Finally, we’ll calculate the kinetic energy using the velocity:

Kinetic Energy = 1/2 × Mass × (Velocity)² ≈ 1/2 × 1.54 × 10¹¹ kg × (20,000 m/s)² ≈ 3.08 × 10¹⁹ joules

So, with a diameter of 340 meters, the estimated kinetic energy released upon impact would be enormous, potentially equivalent to tens of thousands of megatons of TNT.

And finally, let’s compare the estimated kinetic energy of the impact of Apophis with the energy released by the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima:

1. Estimated Kinetic Energy of Apophis Impact: 3.08 × 10¹⁹ joules
2. Energy Released by Atomic Bomb on Hiroshima (Little Boy): Approximately 63 terajoules (6.3 × 10^13 joules)

Now, let’s put these figures into perspective:

• The estimated kinetic energy of the impact of Apophis, with a diameter of 340 meters, is significantly higher than the energy released by the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.

• In fact, the energy released by Apophis upon impact is approximately 488,000 times greater than the energy released by the Hiroshima bomb.

This plain comparison emphasizes the huge destructive potential of asteroid impacts and highlights the importance of monitoring and potentially mitigating the threat posed by near-Earth objects like Apophis.

While the Hiroshima bomb had disturbing consequences, the impact of a large asteroid like Apophis could cause catastrophic damage on a much larger scale.

And so with that, let’s ask the final question:

When Will Aphophis Hit Earth if Ever?

As already concluded, Apophis will not hit Earth in 2029, nor in 2036. But what about 2050 or 2100?

Well, based on recent calculations, Apophis will also not hit Earth in the next 100 years.

And while scientists can’t predict with 100% certainty how Apophis will behave, typically, an asteroid similar in size to Apophis, which measures around 370 meters, is expected to collide with Earth approximately once every 80,000 years on average.

So, we can feel really safe. At least for now.

And in such a distant future (thousands of years from now), we will definitely develop new technologies that will be able to destroy asteroids far away from Earth.