Did you know that we’re currently in the ice age? Yes, you read that correct. So then, you might think – why the question in the headline, since we know that we’re currently living through ice age.
Well, the answer is more complicated than you might think.
Namely, Earth has gone through many ice ages, and they’ve shaped the planet in significant ways. Massive glaciers have covered continents, engraved valleys, and changed weather patterns for tens of thousands of years.
But ice ages don’t happen randomly. They follow patterns linked to Earth’s behavior. Scientists have spent years and years collecting all the clues. They’ve studied ice cores from Antarctica, sediment layers from ancient lakes, and even the chemical makeup of deep-sea fossils.
These clues reveal that Earth is overdue for another BIG ice age — at least according to natural cycles.
However, something unusual is happening. Instead of cooling down, the planet is slightly warming up. Rising carbon dioxide levels from human activity seem to be slightly interfering with Earth’s natural cooling cycle.
That raises an interesting question: Have humans delayed — or even prevented — the next ice age?
Let’s try to understand this. And to be able to understand the future, we need to know the past.
So, let’s start there.
Interesting fact: The last major ice age ended about 12,000 years ago, but smaller cold periods, like the Little Ice Age (1300 to 1850 AD), have happened more recently.
All Known Ice Ages (Table)
Scientists have identified at least five major ice ages in Earth’s history. These ice ages lasted millions of years and shaped the planet’s surface in profound ways.
Here’s a look at the known ice ages:
| Ice Age Name | Time Period (Million Years Ago) | Duration | Key Characteristics |
| Huronian | 2,400 – 2,100 | ~300 million | First known major ice age; linked to rise in oxygen levels |
| Cryogenian | 720 – 635 | ~85 million | “Snowball Earth” — ice likely covered the entire planet |
| Andean-Saharan | 460 – 430 | ~30 million | Ice sheets formed near present-day Africa and South America |
| Karoo | 360 – 260 | ~100 million | Ice sheets covered parts of present-day South Africa and South America |
| Quaternary | 2.58 – Present | Ongoing | Multiple glacial and interglacial periods; we humans emerged during this time |
And so, as mentioned at the beginning of the article, Earth is technically still in the Quaternary Ice Age. We’re just living through an interglacial period — a warmer break between colder stretches.
Interesting fact: The Cryogenian period was so cold that even the equator may have been covered in ice.
How Ice Ages Work?
Ice ages don’t just happen overnight. They’re the result of complex, long-term shifts in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt, and rotation. This cycle, known as the Milankovitch cycle, controls how much sunlight reaches Earth’s surface — and where that sunlight falls.
There are three key parts to this cycle:
- Eccentricity – Earth’s orbit around the sun changes from circular to slightly elliptical over a 100,000-year period. When the orbit is more elliptical, the difference between summer and winter becomes greater.
- Obliquity – The tilt of Earth’s axis changes between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees every 41,000 years. A greater tilt leads to warmer summers and colder winters. A smaller tilt keeps summers cooler, allowing ice sheets to grow.
- Precession – Earth’s axis wobbles like a spinning top, shifting the timing of the seasons over a 26,000-year period.
When all three of these factors align in a way that reduces summer warmth, snow and ice begin to accumulate.
And over thousands of years, this buildup turns into massive glaciers. As the glaciers grow, they reflect sunlight, which causes further cooling — creating a feedback loop that deepens the ice age.
But it’s not just about sunlight. Ocean currents play a big role too. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) carries warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic.
If that current weakens or shuts down, winters in the northern hemisphere could become brutally cold.
Interesting fact: The Milankovitch cycle predicts that Earth should be cooling right now — but increase in CO2 emissions have interrupted this process.
Why Aren’t We Already in an Ice Age?
As mentioned, based on the Milankovitch cycle, Earth should be heading into another ice age right now. So why isn’t it happening? The answer lies in the atmosphere.
Well, over the last 150 years, human activity has changed Earth’s climate. Not much, but enough that it could impact cycles.
Burning fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane into the atmosphere. These greenhouse gases trap heat, preventing the planet from cooling as it naturally would.
Ice core data from Antarctica shows that during previous ice ages, CO2 levels stayed between 180 and 300 parts per million (ppm).
Today, atmospheric CO2 levels exceed 420 ppm — the highest they’ve been in over 3 million years. This extra heat is keeping ice sheets from growing and delaying the cooling phase of the Milankovitch cycle.
Based on that, some scientists think we may have already canceled the next ice age — or pushed it back by tens of thousands of years.
But still, many open question remain; what can trigger ice age, when will it happen, how will we survive (well not we reading this, but people alive in 10,000 to 100,000 years from now), how long would ice age last etc, etc…
Interesting fact: The last time atmospheric CO2 levels were this high, sea levels were 20 meters higher than they are today.
Could We Trigger an Ice Age by Accident?
It sounds strange, but it’s possible. Kind of.
Namely, if enough fresh water from melting glaciers flows into the Atlantic Ocean, it could disrupt ocean currents. That would stop warm water from reaching the northern hemisphere, triggering severe cooling.
This nearly happened about 12,000 years ago during the Younger Dryas period. A massive flood from melting ice in North America shut down the AMOC. Europe and parts of North America plunged into frigid temperatures for over 1,000 years.
If Greenland’s ice sheet melts fast enough, history could repeat itself. The extra freshwater would interfere with ocean currents, cooling northern Europe and North America — possibly creating a mini ice age.
Interesting fact: Greenland’s ice sheet holds enough water to raise global sea levels by over 7 meters.
Would People Survive Another Ice Age?
Humanity has survived ice ages before — but the next one would be challenging.
During the last ice age, humans adapted by living in caves, using fire for warmth, and hunting large animals like mammoths.
And you might think – yeah and now with electricity, heating and all technologies we could survive ice age easily.
Well actually, today’s society is far more complex and therefore – vulnerable.
Modern cities, supply chains, and agriculture all depend on stable weather. An ice age would shorten growing seasons and reduce global food production. Crops would fail. Livestock would suffer greatly.
Mass migration would likely follow. People would move south toward warmer regions. Political instability and conflict over resources would be inevitable.
Technology might help — at least for a while. Greenhouses, artificial heating, and food engineering could soften the blow.
But, most likely large-scale ice coverage would make rebuilding infrastructure nearly impossible.
Of course, all of that would depend on level of technology we achieve by then. With current acceleration of AI development and quantum computing we might develop new sources of energy in next 100 years easily.
Heck, we could even potentially develop ultra powerful technologies that could enable us to manipulate climate completely.
Interesting fact: During the last ice age, human populations in Europe may have fallen to fewer than 10,000 people.
But What About Temperatures in Next Ice Age?
If Earth enters another full ice age, global temperatures would drop significantly. Based on data from previous glacial periods, scientists estimate the following changes in average temperatures:
Global Average Temperature Drop
- Current global average temperature: 58°F (14°C)
- Estimated drop during an ice age: 7°F to 12°F (4°C to 7°C)
This would bring the average global temperature down to around 46°F to 51°F (8°C to 10°C). While this might not sound extreme, even a 7°F (4°C) drop would cause massive changes to ecosystems, weather patterns, and sea levels.
Regional Temperature Changes
The cooling wouldn’t be evenly spread across the planet. Some regions would experience much larger drops:
| Region | Current Average Temperature | Estimated Drop | Ice Age Average Temperature |
| North America | 50°F (10°C) | ↓ 18°F to 27°F (↓10°C to ↓15°C) | 23°F to 32°F (-5°C to 0°C) |
| Europe | 52°F (11°C) | ↓ 18°F to 25°F (↓10°C to ↓14°C) | 27°F to 34°F (-3°C to 1°C) |
| Siberia | 32°F (0°C) | ↓ 20°F to 30°F (↓11°C to ↓17°C) | 2°F to 12°F (-17°C to -11°C) |
| Tropics | 77°F (25°C) | ↓ 5°F to 9°F (↓3°C to ↓5°C) | 68°F to 72°F (20°C to 22°C) |
| Antarctica | -20°F (-29°C) | ↓ 5°F to 10°F (↓3°C to ↓6°C) | -30°F to -25°F (-34°C to -32°C) |
Ice Coverage and Sea Levels
- Ice sheets would expand across much of North America, Northern Europe, and Asia.
- Sea levels would drop by 300 to 400 feet (90 to 120 meters) as water becomes trapped in ice sheets.
- Glaciers would likely reach as far south as New York City and Berlin.
Extreme Winters and Cooler Summers
Winters would become harsher, with temperatures in Northern Europe and North America regularly dropping to -40°F (-40°C) or lower. Summers would also cool significantly, with high temperatures in temperate zones struggling to reach 50°F (10°C).
Interesting fact: During the last ice age, annual snowfall in some areas was nearly 20 times higher than today. And the cold prevented it from melting.
How Long Would an Ice Age Last?
A full ice age can last tens of thousands of years. The last glacial period lasted nearly 100,000 years.
However, even during an ice age, temperatures fluctuate. There are colder phases, called glacials, and slightly warmer phases, called interstadials. A full glacial period could lock Earth into freezing conditions for over 50,000 years.
The warming phase we’re in now — the Holocene — has lasted about 12,000 years. And we can consider ourselves happy to be alive right now, because climate is (still) rather good.
That will change in the future!
Interesting fact: During the last ice age, ice sheets in North America were over 3 kilometers thick.
So… When Will the Next Ice Age Happen?
So, when’s the next ice age due? Well, hold on tight. According to recent research, we might have been heading for one sooner than you’d think.
Stephen Barker, a professor at Cardiff University, and his team have found an “amazing correlation” between Earth’s tilt and ice sheet formation. Based on their findings, they estimated that the next ice age would have begun within the next 10,000 years.
But here’s the kicker: as we mentioned previously, human-driven global warming has thrown a twist in the whole process.
So, let’s take a look at few possibilities:
Here’s a rough timeline of the key factors at play and how they might affect when the next glaciation begins:
| Timeframe | Event | Effect on Ice Age |
| Next 1,000 – 2,000 years | Human-caused CO2 emissions remain high | Global warming continues, delaying or preventing the next ice age |
| 5,000 – 15,000 years | Milankovitch cycle shifts toward cooler summers | Natural cooling phase begins, but greenhouse gases may block significant ice buildup |
| 15,000 – 30,000 years | Human CO2 emissions eventually decrease (due to natural decay or reduced fossil fuel use) | Cooling could resume, leading to the slow buildup of ice sheets |
| 50,000 years | Natural cooling from the Milankovitch cycle strengthens | Ice sheets begin to expand in the Northern Hemisphere |
| 100,000 years | Full glaciation if human influence fades and natural cooling dominates | Ice age conditions similar to the last glacial period |
Based on that we have several imaginable outcomes.
Possible Outcomes:
- Ice Age Delayed – If CO2 levels remain high, warming could delay the next ice age by 50,000 years or more.
- Ice Age Prevented – If human-driven warming remains constant, Earth could skip the next ice age entirely.
- Partial Cooling – If CO2 levels fall gradually, Earth could experience a weaker or shorter ice age.
- Sudden Trigger – A major volcanic eruption or shift in ocean currents could override human warming and trigger rapid cooling.
The most likely scenario is a delay.
High CO2 levels have already pushed the next cooling phase back by tens of thousands of years. However, if emissions drop or natural forces (like volcanic activity or ocean current shifts) kick in, an ice age could still happen sooner than expected.
And so, the next ice age isn’t a question of “if” — it’s a matter of “when.” Earth’s natural cycles are still operating, but human activity has thrown them slightly off course.
Whether it happens in 10,000 years or 100,000 years, the next ice age will arrive eventually. The only question is whether humans will still be here to witness it.
Perhaps we will destroy ourselves or perhaps we’ll advance so much that we’ll travel to another planet(s) and then witness ice age on Earth trough ultra modern “pocket universe” telescopes.
